Real Estate.... A Fisherman's Tale

Real Estate…. A Fisherman’s Tale

By Brent Katzmann, NYS Lic Associate Broker

I’ve been writing much of this year about the emerging trends in residential real estate in our market; how homes seem to be holding value while taking a bit longer to sell and less of the hyper competitiveness and multi-offer activity of recent years. And I’ve surmised that some of it is being driven by growing inventory making the market more competitive among sellers and more favorable to buyers. And I believe this remains true.

Yet, in talking with agents and watching the market daily, something interesting seems to be happening. It’s a phenomenon I’m metaphorically referring to as “a fishing trip.” Not the same as the phishing (with a “ph”) that we’ve all become accustomed to from scammers. No, it’s more along the lines of trying out multiple lures and live bait in an effort to attract a fish to your line, and then having to be both strategic and thoughtful in how you keep them from jumping off the hook before closing.

What is it about the market that causes me to interpret it this way? Two primary trends that are happening concurrently: increases in the frequency of price reductions on active listings, and increasing contract cancellations.

In 2024 through the 2nd Quarter there were 43 price reductions in single-family/condo/townhome listings, averaging a reduction of 7.4%. In 2025 through the 2nd Quarter, the number of price reductions jumped to 87, twice the level as last year. However, the average price drop was less: only 5.4%.

It’s also interesting to note that in 2024, while price reductions accelerated in the 2nd Q from 14 to 29 (a doubling of reductions quarter over quarter), in 2025, the increase in price reductions from 1st to 2nd Quarter was nearly a fivefold jump, from 15 to 72. 2nd Quarter is also where we began seeing the surge in listing activity as well as announcements of hiring freezes and other economic caution flags.

Not only have there been price drops, there are often other promotional efforts being introduced to help move a listing, including open houses, giveaways, and concessions such as credits from sellers to buyers to cover closing expenses, or the future replacement of carpeting and the like, sort of like seasoning the bait, if you will.

Once a listing has gone under contract, often the contract includes contingencies that protect the buyer in the event they encounter something during an inspection or they fail to secure financing. Given that we have been seeing an increase in purchase agreements that contain such requirements (often these were dropped from purchase offers at the height of competitive bidding that we experienced in 2023 and the first half of 2024), it stands to reason that we should expect to see more deals unwind as a result. Indeed, in the first quarter of 2025, there were 21 residential single-family/condo contract cancellations in Tompkins County, measured by status changes from “under contract” status to “Back on the Market”, or active status, according to MLS data, up from 7 during the same quarter in 2024. In the second quarter, however, the number of properties coming back on the market after having been under contract fell to 16, down from 26 in 2nd Q 2024, but so far in 3rd Q the cancellations have popped to 17 vs only 8 last year in the 3rd Q to this point.

If you’re keeping score, that’s 54 cancellations YTD in 2025 vs 41 in 2024, a 32% increase in Tompkins County.

None of this is alarming, per se. In fact, this is a trend being reported around the country. In a recent study by Redfin, 15.3% of contracts are being cancelled nationally. And it really only lends support to the anecdotal stories we’ve been hearing about “difficult” transactions, or last minute negotiations as either the buyer or the seller want a little more convincing or concessions from the other party to move forward. Of course, as a licensed real estate practitioner, our role is to act in the best interests of our respective clients and follow their lawful instruction, and they are often within their rights to be returning to the negotiating table. And we can only surmise as to why there may be a little more of this happening lately. Perhaps we had become used to the idea that buyers were happy just to have secured a contract so they were perhaps more accepting of the property, price and process than we’re seeing now.

This is by no means a warning flag about the state of the market here as activity levels overall, and values, have continued to be healthy. There is, however, some likelihood that overall economic uncertainty is causing some buyers to proceed a bit more cautiously. All this is to say that sellers would be well served understanding that the path from listing to closing may not always be uneventful or predictable and that homes with once acceptable peculiarities may find buyers not quite as forgiving. And always, it’s worth both buyers and sellers recognizing that landing that fish will certainly involve an open-mindedness to the snags, the changes in current, and art of holding the net when it’s the right thing to do for the parties involved.